The most perplexing part of writing about housing in Japan is the mass media’s fixation on Tokyo. As we’ve said in this blog many times before, Tokyo is distinct from the rest of Japan when it comes to real estate, and while trends in the capital can often be extrapolated to cover Japan as a whole, many specific aspects don’t apply, the most obvious one being that people who own or are looking to buy property in Tokyo can expect at least some return on their investment, if not always an actual profit; whereas those who live in the rest of Japan, not counting certain regional urban centers, cannot. Even the akiya (vacant housing) probem is different in Tokyo. There are akiya there—quite a few, in fact—but they have not been completely abandoned, which is often the case in the suburbs and the countryside. Sometimes their owners are just waiting for the right opportunity to sell and sometimes there are financial obstacles involved, such as a failure to pay property taxes or inheritance issues. But the land will always be worth something, and that isn’t necessarily true elsewhere.

Consequently, the big real estate news in recent months has been the skyrocketing value of Tokyo real estate, in particular, that of new condominiums. The average price of a condominium in the 23 wards has now breached the ¥100 million mark, thanks mainly to the fact that brand new condos at the high end of the price spectrum sell out almost immediately. According to the land ministry, if the average price index were set at 100 in 2010 for condos throughout Tokyo prefecture, it would be 190.1 as of April of this year. In contrast, new house prices in Tokyo would only be 125.6 as of April 2023. The main accelerant is the rash of ultra-luxury apartments that have gone on sale in the central wards. The average price of a condo in the newly opened 65-story Azubadai Hills is ¥2 billion, with the top price reaching ¥20 billion. And they’ve all been sold. According to one real estate research company, in July, 1,542 newly built condos went on sale in the 23 wards. The average price was ¥134 million, and only 20 percent of them could be had for less than ¥70 million. Moreover, 93 percent of the units priced above ¥100 million have been sold, but that’s true of only 64 percent of the units priced between ¥80 and ¥100 million. 

Tokyo real estate values have always been supported by people of means, but it should be noted that the average income nationwide has not increased at all in the last 20 years. In fact, it’s now going down. The tax agency reported that the average income was ¥4.61 million in 2020. The following year it dropped to ¥4.43 million. This means the real estate gap in Tokyo is getting wider all the time, and pretty soon only very wealthy people will be able to live in the center of the city. 

This intelligence is certainly newsworthy, but the amount of obsessive detail that has gone into the story in the mass media has precluded what such economic shifts mean for the rest of us who don’t live in Tokyo and don’t make even the average income cited. There is very little. One example of this kind of reporting is a Yahoo! News special report posted Nov. 4 about the Tokyo condo boom and how hard it has been on two-income households that make less than ¥15 million a year. It is not a schadenfreude-fueled piece, but rather a serious study of how the condo boom has adversely affected the fortunes of those who get by at the lower end of the upper middle class. 

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Here is a link to our November column in the FCCJ’s Number 1 Shimbun, which is about how people without cars are finding it more and more difficult to access transportation options in Japan.