In December, the Chiba city office of East Japan Railways (JR East) announced a change in the timetable for the Keiyo Line that would start in March. The Keiyo runs from Tokyo Station parallel to the Tokyo Bay shoreline south to Soga Station in Chiba city. It is the train line that services Tokyo Disneyland and the Makuhari district of Chiba, which is the home of Makuhari Messe, one of the metro area’s biggest exhibition and convention facilities. The reason for the timetable change was the removal of the Commuter Express train, which does not make any stops between Shin Kiba Station in Tokyo and Soga, and which operated twice in the morning and twice in the evening. The Commuter Express would be replaced by local trains, which stop at every station on the line, but several Rapid Express trains would be added during off-peak hours in the daytime.
According to the transportation-oriented website Impress Watch, the announcement was met with opposition from local governments affected by the Keiyo Line, including Chiba city’s and Chiba Prefecture’s. In addition, the major media covered the matter with an eye as to how the changes would affect commuters, many of whom demanded that JR East reinstate the Commuter Express. As a compromise, the company added two Rapid Express trains to the morning peak and two to the evening peak, which was highly unusual. Once a railway company changes a timetable they almost never change it back, even partially. However, the compromise may not be enough for commuters who rely on the Keiyo Line to get to their jobs in the capital. In fact, many probably bought their homes on the Chiba peninsula because of the Keiyo Commuter Express, which is why many real estate companies and residential housing developers are nervous about the timetable changes.
JR East told NHK that the number of passengers on the line has decreased by up to 30 percent during peak periods compared to before the pandemic. There are a total of 18 stations on the Keiyo Line, of which 7 are not serviced by the Commuter Express and the Rapid Express. The company thinks that people who live near these stations are inconvenienced by the former express train timetables, and wanted to give them more opportunities to use the line. In addition, local trains have to wait at certain stations along the line for Commuter Express and Rapid Express trains to pass, thus further inconveniencing local train users. Though JR East emphasizes that they’re thinking about local line users, it’s their own bottom line that’s really at issue. Those who use the various express trains to get to work are already locked in as customers, so the strategy of the timetable change is to add passengers by increasing local runs and making them more “efficient” for those passengers. And on paper, at least, the difference in time doesn’t seem that bad. During peak hours, the local train from Soga to Tokyo, and vice versa, takes only 19 more minutes than the Commuter Express.
But such calculations don’t convey the actual experience of commuting, especially for those people who live past Soga Station on other JR lines, such as the Sotobo Line and Uchibo Line, which go further south and into the interior of the peninsula. These commuters bought homes in developments that were promoted by housing companies using the Commuter Express as a sales point. The commute times advertised to potential home buyers were calculated based on the passenger changing at Soga to the Commuter Express for Tokyo. An article in the April 26 Asahi Shimbun reported on a survey conducted by Chiba city that found 80 percent of the 12,000 respondents said that the new timetable has had a negative impact on them. Sixty percent said they had to leave for work earlier than before the change in order to get to work on time. And 30 percent replied that they had stopped using the Keiyo Line for commuting and now used a different line. (Which ones, Asahi doesn’t mention. The Sobu Line runs parallel to parts of the Keiyo Line, though the Sobu is already notoriously overcrowded.) Of the total number of respondents, 60 percent lived in Chiba city and 30 percent lived on either the Sotobo or Uchibo lines.
This effect on real estate was obvious as soon as JR East made the timetable change announcement at the end of the year. Another Asahi article that ran Jan. 19 interviewed realtors in the area who were deeply concerned. Less than a month after the announcement these realtors said their business was already suffering. A new housing development near Kamatori Station on the Sotobo Line had been advertised as being 44 minutes from Tokyo, and that information—which, like all such promotional gambits, was probably an overly optimistic estimate—would no longer be valid as of March. As one realtor told the newspaper, if it takes more than 60 minutes to get to Tokyo, it becomes much more difficult to sell land for single family homes. Another company that builds custom-made homes was also worried since it had recently bought tracts of land based on the availability of the Commuter Express. One employee said that commute times was a bigger consideration for home buyers than even the quality of the house itself. Even condo developers in Chiba city were wondering if they would even be able to sell units now under construction. And what about the property values of homes sold under the pretense of a faster commute? In addition, the Makuhari Messe Convention Center was already hearing from some event promoters that they might switch venues to somewhere closer to Tokyo, a move that would have a ripple effect on hotels and other hospitality businesses near Kaihin Makuhari Station, which is a stop on the Rapid Express but was never on the Commuter Express.
Pinning residential housing sales to commuting times is especially prevalent in Japan because employers pay for workers’ commutes, regardless of where they live. This practice has been a prime driver of suburban development in Japan, since a prospective homeowner can afford to buy land that is a long distance from their work place. The only thing they have to worry about is the time and inconvenience of long commutes, which became longer and longer as more families moved into ever more distant housing developments. According to a 2021 report by a research lab associated with Citizen, the watch manufacturer, the average daily round-trip commute into Tokyo in 1980 was 1 hour, 43 minutes; in 1990, 1 hour, 56 min.; in 2000, 2 hours, 3 min.; in 2010, 1 hour, 24 min.; and in 2015, 1 hour, 26 min. The drop in commute time starting in 2010 was likely due to new families foregoing the deep suburbs for homes closer to work. That trend seems to be reversing again. Another survey conducted by the real estate portal site Homes in 2021 found that almost all the workers who spent more than one hour commuting to jobs one-way lived in newly built houses or condos in the suburbs. In fact, only about 15 percent had purchased used houses or condos.
Cat Foreheads & Rabbit Hutches 
Keiyo line also has real limits to frequency because of its inconvenient/highly constrained Tokyo station terminal unlike the through-running lines it parallels (Chuo line’s Tokyo terminal is smaller but it can disgorge at Shinjuku, Ochanomizu etc). Plus the connections to the Sobu and Musashino systems create timetable risk. Furthermore compared to other JR east lines let alone the Legacy privates keiyo has far fewer stations per kilometre, which means there places poorly served (e.g. Urayasu between Shin-Urayasu and Maihama). JR East is doing what it thinks is profitable, but that logic is serving more riders.
And I have to say you’re contradicting yourself, much like Japanese planning/urbanist critic discourse. You can complain about city centre condos being overbuilt or you can complain about exburban housing. You can complain about cost-of-living or you can complain about real estate values. And this isn’t just a Tokyo problem, Fukuoka, Kansai and Nagoya all underperform because their commitment to having inner city suburbs with German rather Spanish population density. And then whine about Greater Tokyo taking their people away.
If authorities in Chiba feel cheated they should really look in the mirror at the ongoing incompetence of the 1970-2000 new build commuter lines. The stupid zoning around the Hokusou line (i.e. urban control districts next to stations like its London greenbelt-land), the refusal to improve the Keisei mainline’s horrendous curves. And blame Tokyo/National government for not prioritising one-seat rides (i.e. a Keiyo-Shinjuku connector, through-running the Keisei network like they do Tobu Isesaki one).
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Hi,
Another interesting article.
Just wondering if the company allowances paid for commuting costs are still not subject to income as well as exempt from the pension and health insurance taxes?
Your article also clearly points out the relationship between distance from major city centres and the value of real estate which is common throughout the world.
And while commute times may be long on Japan, it is not the only country with long commutes, but the trains there are quite reliable.
Where I live in Melbourne it takes 1 hour and six minutes from the train station to the end station in Melbourne. That is a distance of about 45 kilometres. That is the fastest train available. Add in time to the station from home and then from the station to work and you are looking at around 1 hour and 45 minutes one way.
Well I should clarify that length of time as the trains here are famous for delays or not running at all.
Even the definition of “on time” is warped . They define “on time” as arriving within 4 minutes and 59 seconds of the scheduled arrival time.
The target is 92% and the most recent 12 month overall performance is 93%.
Some lines are better than others, but our line has the worst performance as far as the number of cancelled trains.
Oh, and I forgot to the trains here will also bypass stations and not stop sometimes making you wait for the next scheduled train.
So when I was working I had to take an earlier train make sure that I arrived on time in case my train was cancelled.
So travel time plus work time add up to 12 hours a day or so. Sounds just like Japan to me, but here people have to pay for their own transport costs to work out of their income.
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Japan has huge tax breaks for in-kind remuneration of workers by companies such as insurance, pensions etc. Its a deeply flawed system that functions as a kind of welfare state to the benefit of male salaryman class.
Those tax-breaks also apply to cars. Company cars are a thing and more importantly companies subsidise petrol/parking costs the same way they do commuter passes. And you can see its effects in cities without a good rail network (Niigata, Kanazawa). Its a subsidy for long commutes not railway commutes.
And its important not to exaggerate its effects, Japanese cities massively outperform on walking/cycling rates for cities of comparable density and infrastructure. Restrained urban road design and privatised parking do a lot.
Australian cities are quite different, employment is somewhat less centralised and critically cities are much smaller than the Big three in Japan. Only recently have Sydney and Melbourne started reaching the end of car-based sprawl. Greater Tokyo is at the edge of railway sprawl capacity.
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Thanks.
When I worked in Japan the only transport subsidy I received was for my subway pass which I had to give a copy to my full time university in order to get reimbursed. No payment if I took my car.
The university was typical in their approach to foreign teachers. No retirement benefits, no family allowances, no housing allowances, no research allowances, but the same salary….
Well almost the same as back then there was a lower tax rate on bonuses. The Japanese employees received a Higher proportion of their salary in the form of bonuses so lower tax was paid.
And as far as Australia is concerned, IIRC we are well over 5 million people now in Melbourne and would be bigger than Sydney if they used the same geographic dimensions. We will pass Sydney no matter the stats used in about six years.
The sprawl here is unbelievable. Kilometres and kilometres of stinky, crappy, little houses on small blocks of land.
Just 400 metres from us they tore down one old house and put up 5 townhouses on a 1000 square metre block of land. How they were able to that is a question everyone wants answers to.
And about a hundred metres down the road closer to the village there is a townhouse for sale on around 270 square metres of land for A$1 million.
A hundred million yen plus tax for a townhouse 45 kilometres from the CBD. Yes, we live in a nice area, but really…..and that is one of the cheaper ones too.
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I didn’t even consider the inconvenience of the schedule change.
Before reading the article, I thought this would be about how trains like the Wakashio have become reserved-seating only, and people now need to reserve via an app. It’s become a significant pain for many people, especially old people, and people who don’t regularly take these trains (both domestic and international tourists, etc.) who rarely come to Chiba.
Hopefully, there will be enough pressure to change it.
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Part of that is MLIT letting rail companies get away with price discrimination strategies via more limited expresses rather than doing something more sensible like a flat rush-hour premium. (Yes Tokyo metro is experimenting with that).
Fundamentally there is a trade-off between longer range services that serve fewer customers and locals that serve a lot more. Way more people ride Keiyo local services than do all of the longer range services that go into Tateyama/Mobara/Choshi etc.
Furthermore since the legacy Uchibo line and Sotobu lines just can’t compete on geometry with the more modern highways for a declining tourism market. Rural/peri-urban Chiba just doesn’t have the heritage or the landscape or the climate to compete with more charismatic locations for domestic let alone foriegn tourists. Had Chiba made different policy decisions decades ago perhaps things would be different. But they didn’t.
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