Fixed values

As anyone who regularly reads this blog knows, we have issues with the Japanese media’s coverage of real estate prices, since they almost exclusively cover Tokyo. For sure, Tokyo properties mean a lot in the scheme of things, but Tokyo real estate is exceptional in the sense that the city still charts growth while the rest of Japan doesn’t; or, at least, not at the exceptional rate that Tokyo does. Consequently, the huge increases in property values that Tokyo is now seeing don’t really represent Japan, something the media neglects to point out. What you get in the mainstream press when it comes to coverage of real estate is skyrocketing condo prices in Tokyo and akiya—vacant properties—everywhere else, and nothing much in between. So we were intrigued by a recent series in the Asahi Shimbun about how the government assesses property values, since they do it all over Japan. Though the articles don’t explain anything about national trends in property values, they imply that one of the reasons for the lopsided coverage mentioned above is that it’s difficult to trust any related statistics released by the government.
The series was prefaced by an article about an announcement from the municipal government of Chofu, Tokyo, that its assessments for property taxes and so-called city planning taxes were incorrect in 166 cases; specifically, for 88 properties the assessments overestimated their value while for 78 the assessments underestimated their value. The amount of refunds due for the overestimates comes to ¥80.95 million, while the additional imposition of taxes for the underestimated assessments add up to ¥52.61 million.
The mistakes mostly had to do with how land was categorized. For instance, property taxes for land categorized as residential can be reduced by five-sixths if it contains a structure of some kind. Other variables include additional structure, additions to the main structure, and demolition work, all of which would require that the land be reassessed. Apparently, Chofu has yet to determine exactly how they got it wrong, but in any case, according to the law if an assessment is found to be too low, the municipality can demand compensation no more than five years after the original assessment. But if an assessment is too big, then there is no time limit for compensating the property owner.
Obviously, land value assessment is a tricky business that’s open to a lot of subjective factors, so in its Keizai Plus section, Asahi followed up the Chofu item by looking into the broader “mystery” surrounding the land ministry’s public real estate assessments, which are carried out every year for 26,000 locations throughout the country. Two appraisers are assigned to each location, with each one making their own separate assessment, and if there are discrepancies, the ministry mediates. The “correct” valuations are then published on the ministry’s home page.
It sounds simple enough, but when Asahi checked the original valuations of the paired assessors using AI, they found that in 69 percent of the locations assessed, the two appraisals matched exactly, and in the remaining cases the difference was “within 1 percent.” The location with the highest assessment for residential land is Akasaka in Tokyo, and the assessors’ valuations have matched exactly for the last five years. The prefecture with the highest matching rate was Tokushima at 97 percent. Asahi’s initial reaction was that if the valuations are so predictable, then why do they cost so much? The ministry spends ¥4 billion a year on assessments.
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